Trump Says Iran War Will End ‘Very Soon’ as Oil Hits $100 and Markets Panic

President Trump predicts the Iran conflict will wrap up ‘very soon’ while oil prices spike above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022, forcing G7 nations to consider emergency reserve releases.

The math is pretty simple: when you’re bombing a country that controls 20% of the world’s oil supply, prices are going to spike. And boy, have they ever.

Oil prices shot past $100 per barrel on Monday for the first time since Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022, hitting a peak of $119.50 before settling back around $99. That’s a 25% jump since Friday, and it’s got everyone from Washington to Brussels scrambling for solutions.

But here’s the twist: President Trump thinks this whole thing is almost over. Speaking at his Trump National Doral club near Miami on Monday, he told reporters the war against Iran will end ‘very soon’ – even though his own Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently said the war is just beginning.

‘We’re achieving major strides toward completing our military objective,’ Trump said, boasting that U.S. and Israeli forces have ‘wiped every single force in Iran out, very completely.’ He claimed they’ve destroyed more than 50 Iranian naval ships and decimated the country’s Air Force and anti-aircraft defenses. ‘They have no leadership. It’s all been blown up.’

The president’s optimism comes as the conflict, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, enters its second week. What started as coordinated strikes on February 28 has evolved into a broader regional war that’s killed more than 1,300 people in Iran and at least 11 in Israel, according to official counts.

Trump spoke earlier Monday with Russian leader Putin about the war, saying Putin ‘was very impressed with what he saw’ the U.S. do in Iran. ‘This is an excursion a lot of other people wouldn’t have done,’ Trump added – which, let’s be honest, is probably true.

The big question everyone’s asking: if Trump thinks the war is nearly over, why are oil markets still freaking out? The answer lies in a narrow waterway called the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil shipments normally flow. Iran has threatened to attack any tanker trying to pass through, effectively shutting down one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

That’s where the G7 comes in. Finance ministers from the world’s major economies held an emergency meeting Monday to discuss releasing oil from their strategic reserves – basically their rainy-day stash of crude. French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said they’re prepared to use ‘any necessary tools’ to stabilize markets, including potentially releasing stockpiles.

But here’s the catch: they haven’t pulled the trigger yet. ‘We’re not there yet,’ Lescure told reporters in Brussels. The International Energy Agency is reportedly pushing for a coordinated release of 300 to 400 million barrels – roughly a quarter of the IEA system’s public reserves.

To put that in perspective, global oil consumption runs about 100 million barrels per day. So even a massive 400-million-barrel release would only cover about four days of the supply that’s currently offline due to the Strait closure. It buys time, but it doesn’t solve the fundamental problem.

Meanwhile, the human cost keeps climbing. Iranian Red Crescent Society reports more than 1,300 deaths in Iran, while six U.S. soldiers have been killed by Iranian strikes on bases in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, and the UAE.

The conflict has also triggered a succession crisis in Tehran. After U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war, Iranian clerics quickly named his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader. Trump has made clear he considers the younger Khamenei ‘unacceptable’ and wants a say in choosing Iran’s next leader.

For American consumers, the immediate concern is what this means for gas prices. The average price of gasoline in the U.S. was already climbing before this latest spike, and energy analysts warn that sustained oil prices above $100 could push pump prices significantly higher – a potential political nightmare for Trump heading into the 2026 midterm elections.

Trump tried to get ahead of that narrative, calling rising oil prices ‘a very small price to pay’ for U.S. and world ‘safety and peace.’ He predicted that oil supplies will be more secure in the long run because of the war, and threatened to hit Iran even harder if it withholds crude from markets.

‘We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them or anybody else helping them to ever recover that section of the world,’ Trump warned.

The president also floated the idea of the U.S. taking control of the Strait of Hormuz entirely. ‘I’m thinking about taking it over,’ he told CBS News in a phone interview, adding that ships are currently moving through the strait despite Iranian threats.

Whether Trump’s prediction of a quick end to the war proves accurate remains to be seen. What’s clear is that global markets aren’t buying it yet – and until they do, everyone from commuters to central bankers will be feeling the squeeze.